EUR/USD - 5-week correction near completion

Since June 24th EUR/USD seems to be in a flat correction. What initially looked to be a triangle has now all the characteristics of a flat and is this pattern is near completion. On the faster charts one more high could be seen before the next decline will start.

The  larger picture is still intact (chart created on July 20th).

FTSE - Poised for a downturn

After the Brexit referendum vote the FTSE rallied fiercely in 5 waves to 6780. Wave 5 unfolded as an ending diagonal which confirms the 5-wave pattern is about to end. A drop seems imminent.

AUD/NZD - Next impulsive rally about to take off

As explained here on July 4th a third wave was about to start and a minor wave 1 completed at 107.71. Then the pair went south and wave 2 ended at 1.0566.

So wave 1 en wave 2 of a larger degree third wave appear to be complete which means an impulsive move up is expected from here. Currently in a minor wave 2.  This scenario would be invalid below 1.0569.

USD/TRY - Back to the broken triangle

After that stunning Turkish coup last week the USD/TRY broke convincingly out of triangle wave 4 and made a new high at 3.0967. It is now moving down in a corrective fashion and the broken triangle seems like an attractive target. I'm bullish as long as this pair stays above 2.8725.

DXY - Expanded flat in progress, should turn soon

While above 93 I'm bullish on the buck .  I reckon wave 5 started at 91.92 and we're now in wave 2 of wave 3 (of that wave 5).

Importantly, we got 3 waves up from minor wave "1" which gives us a hint that an expanded flat is in the making so look for a turn slightly below  95.30  (the extreme of wave A) for a potential turn and need to see 5 waves down on the smaller charts from the extreme of wave "B".

USD/JPY - Long term picture, expanded flat in progress

A long term decline ended in the year 1995 at 81 after which a rally followed and 147 was hit in 1998. Then, crucially, a new plunge unfolded in 3 waves to 75 in 2011.

Then USD/JPY rallied to 125 last year and subsequently made a move down to 98.  Many pundits tell us that the JPY is doomed, so what to expect from here from a long term perspective ?

My preferred scenario is - because the move down to 75 crucially unfolded in 3 waves - that we're in a large wave 4 (see historical chart) which will unfold as an expanded flat. An expanded flat typically completes just beyond the extreme of wave A (147.67) so 150 looks like a proper target to me. After wave 4 is complete the Yen will make huge gains in a fifth wave.

(An alternative scenario is that this large wave 4 unfolded as a running flat. In that case wave 4 completed at 125 and a top is in place which seems unlikely to me but can't rule it out)

NZD/USD - Expect higher levels before a new deep plunge

The Kiwi got clobbered last week after completing wave 4 at 73.25. so 73.25 should hold.
Minor wave 1 ended at 69.50 so we are now correcting in a wave 2. The sharp Elliot Wave counter has probably already counted 3 waves up but personally I think that this is just wave A (of wave B) considering the small distance in price it covered relative to wave 1. So a flat pattern is a possibility and a deep wave B would confirm this.

So we are now in a B-wave followed by a C-wave to complete minor wave 2. After that Kiwi should plunge again.

In case wave 2 already has finished at 70.26  I will wait for smaller degree wave 1 and wave 2 (of wave 3) to complete and will from there add on to my short position.

EUR/USD - Expanded flat, back to the trendline ?

The break at 1.0980 (wave "(1)") occurred in 3 waves so I regard this as an expanded flat in progress and the trendline looks like a target for wave "2" to complete.

AUD/USD - Minor wave 2 is complete

Wave 4 ended at 78.35 and was, as expected, an expanded flat, Now minor wave 2 should be complete so a sharp move south is imminent. The dollar index (DXY) suggests more dollar strength to come and completed a fourth wave as well at 91.92. The minimum target for AUD/USD is a break of the low at 68.27.

USD/JPY - Was 98 the start of "big" wave 3 ?

This pair moved from 98 to 1.0750 in 3 waves so we need one more wave higher to have confirmation that 98 is really the low. For this scenario to become reality USD/JPY shouldn't trade below 1.0325 (overlap) before it will make a new high. Ideal target for wave 5 to start is 1.0462 so keep an eye on that level. If 98 is indeed the low (and the end of larger degree wave 2) a substantial upmove will take place which will move far beyond 1.2585 so this would be a nice r/r trade.

EUR/CAD - Set to move higher to complete wave 2

EUR/CAD is currently in a large time-consuming wave B (of larger wave 2). The next move will go North to complete wave 2. Ideal target is the broken trendline but it should reach 1.48 at a bare minimum. Long term I'm bearish on this pair.

AUD/USD - Expect a big drop soon

I expect one small move up to complete minor wave 2 and then a big down move will follow. DXY confirms this scenario so I expect the dollar to gain across the board soon.

EUR/USD - More downside to come now triangle is broken

EUR/USD broke out a wave B triangle and is now heading towards 1.06, the bottom of a larger degree wave 4 triangle. Now probably correcting in a minor wave 2 to the bottom line of the broken triangle.

AUD/NZD - Minor wave 2 near completion, more upside to come

I believe wave 1 of  larger degree wave 3 is finished at  1.07 so I take this move down as a smaller degree wave 2 which ideally ends lower around 1.0550 but it doesn't always play out that way and might lift off straight away. I'm already in this one but I reckon a nice opportunity to add on to it will emerge soon. And if 1.0310 is indeed the end of larger degree wave 2 then we should see a big upmove, the ideal target comes in at 1.25 (1.618% of wave 1) but let's stop dreaming and just trade and see what happens :)

EUR/USD - Triangle is probably complete

As long as we're below  1.1097 I believe the triangle is complete and a wave 1 has started. A break below 1.1025 would confirm this and I'm targetting initially 1.06 (the bottom of the larger triangle we're potentially in,  see weekly chart). And later on we should see new lows (below 1.04) because we are in a larger wave 4.  Above 1.1097 would delay this.

Larger degree:

EUR/GBP - Larger correction looming

EUR/GBP completed 5 waves up at 0.8630 so I expect 3 waves down from that level. The ideal target for this projected down move is 0.7575.

Silver - Still more upward movement expected

Silver is in a minor wave 2 and minor wave 3 will likely soon take off. Price plunging below 19.20 would invalidate this count.

Larger picture: Silver is in a wave 3 with ideal target 23 (1.618 extension of wave 1)

JBLU - JetBlue, completion of wave 4 is confirmed, bullish

Wave 4 of JBLU ended at 14.75 after which it surged through the 8 months old trendline. We are now in a minor wave 4 which ideally ends at 17.50, the 38.2 retracement of wave 3.

EUR/NZD - Kiwi weakness about to kick in

NZD/USD and EUR/NZD are now at or near potential turning points and AUD/NZD might have already turned yet.

EUR/NZD - This pair is in a minor wave 4 so one more marginal move down to complete C-wave of a larger degree B-wave.

AUD/NZD - Above 1.0550 would confirm that wave C has ended at 1.0310.

DXY - Dollar index could be in a Flat correction

DXY is in a minor wave 2 (of  larger degree wave 3) and appears to be in the process of making a Flat so we could see 5 waves down towards 95 before more gains are likely. I'm bullish while above 93. Cycle degree wave 4 ended at 91.90.

Long-term:

Short-term:

DXY - Dollar index, more gains coming

The Dollar index (DXY) looks bullish and my preferred scenario is that this index will  break out from current levels which would suggest that a wave 3 has started.

An alternative scenario would be that we're currently in a B-wave which would suggest a C-wave down will follow to complete minor wave 2. This would delay the advance of the Dollar by a few days.

Silver - Still some way to go, more upside likely

The move from 49 to 13 was a wave 2 or B and unfolded as a zigzag and the rally from 13 is impulsive. Wave 1 completed at 18 followed by wave 2 which ended at 15.82. The ideal target for this smaller degree wave 3 that we're currently in is 22.87 (1.618 * wave 1).

Below 18.25 would invalidate this count.

GBP/USD - Another intraday break is around the corner

Cable is in Wave 3 of a larger degree Wave 3 and that's where all the magic happens. Currently a break out of a smaller degree wave 4 seems imminent. As I stated in yesterday's post, I'm bearish on GBP/USD and wouldn't rule out that this pair will visit 1.10 or even parity at some point.

GBPUSD - Poised for much greater losses

Wave 5 has started at 1.72 and has unfolded yet in a series of nested wave '1's" and "2's" so this pair will drop much further from here. 

There is an alternative scenario in which what I have labeled  "(4)" is actually a B-wave and the plunge from 2.12 to 1.35 in the years 2007/2008 is wave A. If this scenario is valid then an even deeper fall could follow.

USD/CAD - A rally will follow

A break of  "i' would confirm wave 3 of wave C has started. However, it is possibe that we will see a move down to end wave C of (B) within a larger correction,.Therefore, a break above "i" is probably the safest way to grab wave 3. Below 1.2460 would invalidate both scenario's.

NZD/USD - Wave 2 is complete

The larger correction from august 2015 has likely ended at 0.7295. Smaller degree wave 2 seems to be complete at 0. 7240 which suggests a big decline will follow from here. A surge above 0.7295 would invalidate this scenario.

TESO - Tesco poised for a rally

The plunge from 36.70 to 5.10 has unfolded in 3 waves. However, wave (c) didn't exceed the extreme of wave (a) so after a correction there is still the possibility that wave (c) will extend. This stock is close to zero so there is not much room to extend. Either way, a rally from here to 12 is likely.

AUD/NZD - Wave 2 is complete

Wave 2 has probably ended at the 100 percent level of wave A at 1,0375. Note the smaller degree triangle which confirms wave 4 of C. Wave 5 could extend but since 1.0375 is the ideal level for wave C to complete I expect wave 2 has ended and this pair will go up in a multi-month wave 3.