NZD/USD - First impuls down complete

Kiwi made a strong move down and broke the smaller degree bullish structure. It will be hard to break 0.7380 since the move down to 0.7210 was impulsive. So I see this upwards movement on the fast charts as a wave 2 and believe more declines are around the corner when this correction has fizzled out.

AUD/NZD - Could have bottomed at 1.0393

A ton of divergence and an impulsive bounce of channel support could indicate that 1.0393 is a bottom and could have turned already. Watch how minor wave 2 comes down for a potential trade north. Personally I would buy the break of this minor wave 2.

Kiwi about to turn soon

Like EUR/NZD is set to make more gains (as I mentioned here) NZD/USD is near the topline of a ending diagonal which also suggests a turn south is coming up.

AUD/NZD is at the bottom of a corrective channel and roughly retraced the length of wave W.

So I expect Kiwi weakness will kick in soon.

AUD/USD and Gold going down in a correction fashion

A few weeks ago AUD/USD appeared to be breaking out of  an ending diagonal which made me think that wave C of wave 4 (daily chart) was complete. Aussi  is now roughly 100 down from that level but crucially in a clear corrective structure. In my view there is no way that this price action can be seen as impulsive movement.

However, AUD/USD has still room to go down a lot more and probably will initially go south from here but it is not the impulsive wave 1 (of larger wave 5) that I had in mind when the ending diagonal appeared to be complete.

Gold's movement  is also corrective (and looks also set up to go south in a wave C).

EUR/USD - Wave C of wave Y in progress

As I mentioned in my previous post here the break of 1.1160 invalidated my bearish count. The pair went up and it appears EUR/USD is now in the C-wave of larger degree wave Y.

I'll watch closely what happens at 1.1318, it could be a target for wave Y to be complete (C=A).

Large picture here

GBP/USD - Could go higher

This is a tricky one, but aren't they all tricky ? Cable is nicely contained in a month-long corrective channel and is now at the bottom. At the end of this C-wave (of wave B) there is a small ending diagonal and a break north  would send Cable likely higher.

A break south from here would probably result in a massive downmove because it's rare that a corrective channel breaks on the "wrong" side but  "rare" doesn't  mean "impossible".

Long-term I think this pair will get hit much harder, but I could see a move higher from here.

NZD/USD - Ending diagonal, but a bigger one

Remember this chart of  NZD/USD. The pair initially went down but then rallied in 3 waves to 0.7338. It appears that that smaller ending diagonal turned into a larger ending diagonal. Although I believe that the smaller diagonal satisfied all requirements of an ending diagonal I think that the fifth wave was relatively small and out of proportion. So recent price action demonstrates once again that proportions matter when it comes to Elliott Wave analysis.

Last thursday NZD/USD traded a few pips above 0.7324 and met the minimum requirements for an ending diagonal. However, it would be more convincing if Kiwi reached the upper line of the supposed ending diagonal.

EUR/NZD - Set to go higher

The price structure suggests that 1.5113 is the start of larger degree wave C and this level should therefore hold. A break of the trendline would give more confirmation, the move down from 1.5837 is a clear 3-wave pattern.

EUR/USD - 1.1160 was the end of my smaller degree bearish count

The break of 1.1160 made the move from 1.1233 to 1.1045 a three-wave structure so I killed the trade at 1.1160 . But the larger degree wave structure still suggests more gains for the dollar, however the EUR/USD might make more gains short term. I don't like large drawdowns so I wait for this rally to end and would consider a new short trade later on.

TNX - 10 year yield might help the Dollar

The 10 year Treasury note yield (TNX) rally from July 2012 unfolded in 3 waves, subsequently the plunge from December 2013 unfolded in 3 waves as well and prices dropped slightly below 1.39 (the starting point of the July 2012 rally). That could mean we're dealing with an expanded flat in progress here which suggests TNX will rally back to 3.00 and probably slightly beyond this price level.

It's a long shot at this point in time but if it plays out this way it would certainly help the Dollar in particular USD/JPY as the yield spread between USD treasuries and JGB's would widen.

USD/JPY - 99.98 make or break level

Changed my count slightly compared with my previous count.

Frankly I could see 99.98 go, but from a risk/reward perspective this could be a massive opportunity now we are within a 100 pip range of this crucial level. If 99.98 breaks I expect new lows, if it holds it could travel way beyond 125.85 assuming wave 2 was complete at 98.78.

Long term view:
http://elliottwavestructures.blogspot.be/2016/07/usdjpy-long-term-picture-expanded-flat.html

USD/TRY - Bounced from the trendline, more gains to come

As expected last week the pair dropped back to the broken triangle and spiked impulsively from the upper triangle line,

http://elliottwavestructures.blogspot.be/2016/07/usdtry-back-to-broken-triangle.html

From here on out USD/TRY will probably largely move in accordance with DXY and I reckon there are more gains to come . Below 2.9725 would invalidate this count.

EUR/GBP - Long term (bullish) view

From the years 2000 to 2008 the Euro made solid gains against the Pound but the complete rally from 0.56 to 0.98 unfolded as a three-wave structure and was therefore corrective 

After 2008 the Euro got clobbered big time and faced huge losses against the Pound and fell all the way back to 0.6930. Crucially this decline in EUR/GBP took place in 3 waves (double zigzag) too and hence was corrective as well.

In July 2008 the pair rallied impulsively to 0.8626 and broke convincingly out of a 8 year old corrective channel. Currently the correction of the 0.69-0.86 impuls is already in progress.

From here on out I believe the correction of the 0.69 - 0.86 rally will need more time to complete and will subsequently be followed by new rally which should go far beyond 0.86 in a C wave.

DJIA - Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900

Let's go back to the previous depression in the thirties of the last century. The Dow plunged like there was no tomorrow until 1942 before a massive rally initiated which already ensured 74 years of gains.

Clearly, the rally is unfolding as a 5-wave advance and we are now in the last stages of the creation of this pattern. Still more gains are expected because the fifth wave which started in 2009 is not yet complete.

However when this pattern is complete a deep sell-off can be expected. Compared with the 2007/2008 plunge the upcoming decline in price should be deeper and more time-consuming. So if you think we live in turbulent times these days I think we ain't see nothing yet !

But first we will see higher grounds, to continue the uptrend price should stay above 17063.

Since 1900:

Since 2009:

SPX500 - Due for a correction

As long as SPX stays above 1990 I'm bullish but a correction seems likely from here now . Wave 5 of minor wave 1 barely stuck it's head out above the extreme of minor wave 3 but I count  5 waves up so I reckon wave 1 (of wave 3) is complete. If this plays out a great opportunity will present itself to catch wave 3 of wave 3 which should be fast and furious.

Big picture : http://elliottwavestructures.blogspot.be/2016/06/s-more-upside-to-come.html

USD/JPY - Could turn up big time after a push lower

As long this pair stays above 99.98 I believe that wave 2 of a larger degree wave 3 has started and that 98.78 was a major low and the end of wave 2 (125.85 to 98.78).

I'm not yet convinced that a low is in place though and would like to see it bottoming out or I will wait for an impulsive move up before taking the trade. However, risk/reward looks great and a nice long term trade so stay tuned.

Big picture:
http://elliottwavestructures.blogspot.be/2016/07/usdjpy-long-term-picture-expanded-flat.html