KO - Coke doesn't look that safe anymore

Coca Cola is typically seen as a safe haven stock and it's allegedly even Warren Buffett's favorite stock but a glance on the chart suggests that a top is near. Now, picking the top of a 50 year plus up-trend is challenging to say the least but a smaller degree impulsive move down preferably breaking the trendline and a correction up would be very telling and a nice short opportunity in my view.

It looks like Coke is nicely following the Elliott Wave textbook, wave 3 is a large spike followed by a slow motion move down (wave 4) and we are now in a slow but impulsive rally (relatively to wave 3). Within this larger degree wave 5 there are 5 smaller degree waves but the stock can extend from here and in that case the move from 36.56 is just a smaller degree wave 1. Put this one on your watchlist.

AUD/NZD - Appears to have turned for real

For months now I've been talking about this trade which has in my always humble:) opinion excellent potential. Yes I was a bit early but this is a long term trade so "early" is relative within this context. At this point it seems likely larger degree wave 2 completed at 1.0237 and that we are now in the process of developing a smaller degree wave 1.

I have already a relatively large position in this trade but I usually ad on to trades but not at this level. I stay away from giving trading advice but personally I would wait for this smaller degree wave 1 to be complete (probably around 1.0760, start of previous wave 4) and then try to catch the end of the C-wave of wave 2 which is basically my edge within the Elliott Wave framework.

Daily chart:

240min chart:

EUR/AUD - Might recover a bit, but then ...?

EUR/AUD made an nice move down last week and bounced from 1.4632 but it looks more like a dead cat bounce for now. I believe there is more downside to come but I would like to see a larger correction higher before the next decline takes place.

Wave 1 of larger wave C seems to be complete at 1.4632 and personally I'm looking to short this pair, not at current levels but higher, preferably around 1.4916 while 1.5069 holds.

BTW: The count in the weekly chart is the least bearish count, a bearisher count could be that larger degree wave B is already complete since we already have seen 3 waves up which would mean the Euro will fall from a cliff straight away.


Weekly:

240min:

ABBV - AbbVie points south

AbbVie made a top in July 2015 at 71.51 and broke quickly to the downside in 5 waves to 45.45. Then, from Oktober 2015 until August 2016 the stock was clearly in a correction and 71.51 was never threatened. 

Later Abbvie turned south at 68.12 and made another (smaller degree) 5-wave decline to 63.06 and we are now correcting this impulsive move down.

According to the Elliott Wave Principle we can now expect that the stock will turn and make another leg down before it reaches 68.12, If we end up above this level this count is invalid. 

About that WTI short

I got a lot of feedback on WTI - Set up to move lower before new highs and questions about what is going to happen next with oil. I hate to disappoint you but the truth is I don't know ! :)

There are multiple options from here, the most likely scenario's are imo that it could be a triangle in progress but then 39.17 should hold. Or it's indeed a WXY like I pointed out in my previous post and in that case you would expect that it will trade below 39.17.

This trade is well in de money so I moved my stop to breakeven (above 47.72)  which is by the way what I always do by taking half of my position out and let the remainder run "risk free".

Bottomline: Personally I wouldn't chase this trade because it looks like we're in de middle of a correction. On wednesday there is a FOMC event which will probably lead to wild swings and you don't want to be stuck in de middle of it with a poor entry. Just my 2 cents.

NZD/USD - Nine month long ending diagonal could break soon

Since January Kiwi appears to be in an ending diagonal which is not uncommon for a C wave. This pattern looks like a wedge and consists of 5 waves and it looks like the fifth wave could be complete at 0.7485. 

From 0.7485 a 5-wave decline followed to 0.7234 after which 3 waves up were seen which suggests minor wave 1 is complete and wave 2 could be complete. But this 3-wave rally is very small and last friday's decline could be a X wave which would point to a double zigzag and 3 more waves up before a 3th wave down starts. An alternative scenario could be that it breaks down straight away because we have already 3 waves up even though they are relatively small. 

Above 0.7485 invalidates all of this.

EUR/CHF - Early stages of wave Y lower

After the SNB shocked global markets by abandoning its long-standing cap against the euro EUR/CHF dropped to 9651. Then the pair rallied and reached nearly 1.12 in February 2016. The subsequent move down from 1.12 seems to be unfolding as a WXY combination and I believe we're at the early stages of wave Y.

The decline from 1.10 unfolded in 5 waves which suggests minor wave 1 is complete. Minor wave 2 is complete or we will see 3 waves up and in that case wave 2 will unfold as a smaller WXY pattern (see ALT in red). This ALT scenario is not unlikely because the move down from 1.0984 unfolded in 3 waves so this wave could be an X wave.

Long story short: I'm bearish as long as 1.10 holds.

WTI - Set up to move lower before new highs

The move higher from 43.02 seems to have unfolded in 3 waves so another leg down is likely before WTI will make more gains. Above 47.72 would invalidate this count.

GBP/USD - Moving up in a corrective fashion

As expected the move higher from 1.2865 doesn't move in an impulsive fashion. The current structure suggests that we could see first a move down in a B-wave followed by a last push up to complete wave Y before resuming the down trend. I believe 1.3465 is a viable minimum target (C=A). Below 1.3059 would invalidate this count.

Silver - One move down before a rally

Silver appears to be in a triangle wave 4. This would suggest one move lower to complete wave C, larger wave Y and the whole correction from 21.