WTI looks like it's in a flat

The rally from 26.03 looks like a leading diagonal. Crude went down from 51.64 in 3 waves (wave A) followed by a 3-wave rally back slightly beyond the start of wave A in a B-wave.

This suggests a flat in progress, so I believe 51.91 is the top of wave B and from here 5 waves down can be expected in a wave C. On the faster charts the first 5 minor waves seem to be almost complete (larger wave 1).

USD/TRY Should Resume Move Higher Soon

As mentioned here the USD/TRY broke in July out of a wave 4 triangle in and then retraced to 2.9133 where wave 3 (of larger wave 3) took off.

The pair is now in a minor wave 4 and has some more corrective movement to do before the rally resumes. Should not trade below 2.9932.

GBP/USD Long Term View

Cable has some more falling to do. I'm gunning for 0.96, the length of "W" (weekly chart) but there are more possibilities for this pair. The good news is that they all point south, the only question is how much will it go up before it plunges again. I belief we will see a move higher before we're going down again but I'm staying in because this is in my view a nice long-term trade.

Daily chart:

Weekly chart:

EUR/CAD - To X or not to X

EUR/CAD made a lovely move down and broke the diagonal. We're going vertical at the moment which suggest we are in a wave 3. Pairs like USD/CAD and NZD/CAD are also doing a good job looking bearish.

But the pair could be near the first bump on the road, that trendline on the daily chart could result in a 3-wave rally back up. In that case we are still in wave 2 and this move down is a X-wave.

However, I think - regarding the time consumed in corrective movement- the most likely option is that wave 2 is complete, break the trendline and this is already wave 3. 

Daily:

240min:

NZD/USD - Follow up

Kiwi broke the diagonal as I hoped for here and the fast move down suggests a wave 3 is unfolding. I expect a larger decline for this pair but I could see AUD/NZD struggling from here and develop a wave 2. This might slow down Kiwi's decline but so far so good.

NZD/USD:

AUD/NZD:

EUR/AUD - Follow up

EUR/AUD followed the Elliott path and as mentioned here a drop followed after a small rally. So I expect more from this pair but I got this one already at break-even. 

At this point 1.4779 would invalidate the count.

EUR/USD - Dull pair might first move up before completing D-wave

After Friday's strong rally the triangle (on the 60m/240m chart) doesn't look that good anymore. Since it traded slightly below 1.1122, broke the triangle and subsequently rallied hard makes it imo more likely that we will see more upside first before the next decline starts.

Personally I think the best option is probably not to trade this bore at all for now, we're right in the middle of a larger correction. 

EUR/GBP Update

EUR/GBP looks like it is in the process of making an expanded flat which is corrective so I bailed out of this trade. If this is indeed an expanded flat it will drop back to 0.8775 and probably slightly beyond this level and then rally back up and extend.

I hope I'm right on this one otherwise I probably gave up on a great short. 

EUR/GBP - Has some falling to do

EUR/GBP's fifth wave (of the rally from 69.30) seems to be complete so now it would be nice to see something convincing on the 15min. I wouldn't rule out a marginal new high but I reckon a big drop is around the corner.

For now we got only 3 waves on the 15min so I'm not totally convinced yet, but you could count this as a wave 1 and wave 2, followed by minor wave 1 and minor wave 2 of wave 3. Well, a chart tells a thousand words.

240min:

15min:

EUR/CHF - Follow up

I think it's interesting to take a look at a trade that didn't follow the (in my view) most likely scenario and what to watch for to limit any losses.

In my last post about this pair here I stated that the most likely scenario is that a wave 3 would follow, but unfortunately it didn't play out this way. EUR/CHF dropped 120 pips and then rallied back up.

Personally I gave a lot of pips back but that doesn't mean you have to lose money when this happens (providing you have a proper entry).

There are 2 big clue's that the decline wasn't a wave 3.

1. The assumed wave 3 didn't hit the 1.618 extension of wave 1.

2. After a 5-wave decline it rallied quickly back in wave 1 territory when price traded above 1,0887 (overlap !). So the decline from 1.10 is likely a X-wave.

So you know exactly where your count is wrong which is in my view the number one gift of the Elliott Wave Principle.

EUR/AUD - Follow up

As mentioned here another drop could be expected. The decline from 1.4781 unfolded in 5 waves so the most likely scenario is that this is wave 1 of larger wave 3. We've already seen a rally followed by a  3-wave decline so I reckon a 3-wave rally (wave Y of larger wave 2) is in the cards now. 

When you count this as a flat we should see 5 waves up in a C-wave, either way it should sail back towards 1.4743 for me to be interested to add on to the trade.

Above 1.4781 would invalide this count.

Silver - Set to extend decline before a decent rally

After 3 waves down from 21.11 the shiny stuff was stuck in a triangle for the last 6 weeks. And because the move started with 3 waves we now can assume that the (not yet complete) full decline from 21.11  is corrective and that we will see higher prices later on. 

A drop below 18.90 would confirm that the triangle is complete and that we will see a new 3-wave decline from here. 

HEI - Heico under pressure

The plunge from 75.01 is impulsive and the bounce at 67.42 was followed by sideways action. Elliott Wave Theory tells us that - even if this count is completely rubbish - we can at least expect another impulsive move down.

There is a possibility that this goes down in 3 waves, double or triple "zig-zagging" in a larger degree wave 4. In that case this correction is a smaller wave B.

Key is 75.01, this level should hold before the next leg down. Personally I would like this stock to go somewhat higher towards 75.01 before it drops from a r/r perspective.