AUDNZD - Got "X-ed" again

The "bully" AUD/NZD made some progress but it surely wasn't what I hoped for. I still believe the larger pattern suggests this pair will go up, the question is "when". 

As it turns out that latest move up is most likely another X-wave. So I assume we are now going down in a Z-wave but this pair shouldn't trade under 1.0237 (invalidation).

Also note that EUR/NZD seems to be in the late stages of an ending diagonal. I would make sense that both pairs will turn roughly at the same time.

AUD/NZD daily chart:

AUD/NZD: 60min chart:

EUR/NZD daily chart:

AUD/NZD Update

The big move still has to come but at least it moves in the right direction. An alternative scenario would be that this up movement is a B-wave of a flat and then we should see a last leg down later on to complete wave 2.

60 min chart:

Daily chart:

AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP Update

AUD/NZD made a move up, appeared initially to break the trendline, but came down again. So I had to change my count and I figure that we will get a last leg down. Still believe I'm right on the larger picture as long as 1.0237 holds and this move down is clearly corrective.

EUR/GBP went up 300 pips which is a lot during these dull trading days, but it just marginally broke that 0.8571 high, and didn't reach the 1.618 extension of wave 1. So there is a good chance this was corrective, but it can also be a leading diagonal in progress or a wave 1 and 2 followed by wave 1 and 2 of larger wave 3 (alt in red). Many options, I wouldn't trade this if I wasn't already in and up on this one.

AUDNZD - Ready for the launch ?

I'm touting about this trade for a long time now in anticipation of a big third wave up which I don't want to miss. I have already multiple long positions but this seems another nice opportunity to add on to the trade.

The move down from 1.0725 is clearly corrective and this wave 2 might already be over. But this correction can still go lower as long as 1.0237 holds. 

On the 15min we need a new high to complete a 5-wave structure, in that case this should be minor wave 1 (which is part of a larger third wave) and we'll take off soon.

Daily chart:

240min chart:

15min chart:

NZD/USD - Follow up

Kiwi broke the diagonal as I hoped for here and the fast move down suggests a wave 3 is unfolding. I expect a larger decline for this pair but I could see AUD/NZD struggling from here and develop a wave 2. This might slow down Kiwi's decline but so far so good.

NZD/USD:

AUD/NZD:

AUD/NZD - Appears to have turned for real

For months now I've been talking about this trade which has in my always humble:) opinion excellent potential. Yes I was a bit early but this is a long term trade so "early" is relative within this context. At this point it seems likely larger degree wave 2 completed at 1.0237 and that we are now in the process of developing a smaller degree wave 1.

I have already a relatively large position in this trade but I usually ad on to trades but not at this level. I stay away from giving trading advice but personally I would wait for this smaller degree wave 1 to be complete (probably around 1.0760, start of previous wave 4) and then try to catch the end of the C-wave of wave 2 which is basically my edge within the Elliott Wave framework.

Daily chart:

240min chart:

AUD/NZD - Could have bottomed at 1.0393

A ton of divergence and an impulsive bounce of channel support could indicate that 1.0393 is a bottom and could have turned already. Watch how minor wave 2 comes down for a potential trade north. Personally I would buy the break of this minor wave 2.

Kiwi about to turn soon

Like EUR/NZD is set to make more gains (as I mentioned here) NZD/USD is near the topline of a ending diagonal which also suggests a turn south is coming up.

AUD/NZD is at the bottom of a corrective channel and roughly retraced the length of wave W.

So I expect Kiwi weakness will kick in soon.

AUD/NZD - Next impulsive rally about to take off

As explained here on July 4th a third wave was about to start and a minor wave 1 completed at 107.71. Then the pair went south and wave 2 ended at 1.0566.

So wave 1 en wave 2 of a larger degree third wave appear to be complete which means an impulsive move up is expected from here. Currently in a minor wave 2.  This scenario would be invalid below 1.0569.

AUD/NZD - Minor wave 2 near completion, more upside to come

I believe wave 1 of  larger degree wave 3 is finished at  1.07 so I take this move down as a smaller degree wave 2 which ideally ends lower around 1.0550 but it doesn't always play out that way and might lift off straight away. I'm already in this one but I reckon a nice opportunity to add on to it will emerge soon. And if 1.0310 is indeed the end of larger degree wave 2 then we should see a big upmove, the ideal target comes in at 1.25 (1.618% of wave 1) but let's stop dreaming and just trade and see what happens :)

AUD/NZD - Wave 2 is complete

Wave 2 has probably ended at the 100 percent level of wave A at 1,0375. Note the smaller degree triangle which confirms wave 4 of C. Wave 5 could extend but since 1.0375 is the ideal level for wave C to complete I expect wave 2 has ended and this pair will go up in a multi-month wave 3.

AUD/NZD - One more push down

The triangle is almost complete so one push lower is expected. From there a big upmove is likely.