NZD/USD - Follow up

Kiwi broke the diagonal as I hoped for here and the fast move down suggests a wave 3 is unfolding. I expect a larger decline for this pair but I could see AUD/NZD struggling from here and develop a wave 2. This might slow down Kiwi's decline but so far so good.

NZD/USD:

AUD/NZD:

NZD/USD - Nine month long ending diagonal could break soon

Since January Kiwi appears to be in an ending diagonal which is not uncommon for a C wave. This pattern looks like a wedge and consists of 5 waves and it looks like the fifth wave could be complete at 0.7485. 

From 0.7485 a 5-wave decline followed to 0.7234 after which 3 waves up were seen which suggests minor wave 1 is complete and wave 2 could be complete. But this 3-wave rally is very small and last friday's decline could be a X wave which would point to a double zigzag and 3 more waves up before a 3th wave down starts. An alternative scenario could be that it breaks down straight away because we have already 3 waves up even though they are relatively small. 

Above 0.7485 invalidates all of this.

NZD/USD - First impuls down complete

Kiwi made a strong move down and broke the smaller degree bullish structure. It will be hard to break 0.7380 since the move down to 0.7210 was impulsive. So I see this upwards movement on the fast charts as a wave 2 and believe more declines are around the corner when this correction has fizzled out.

Kiwi about to turn soon

Like EUR/NZD is set to make more gains (as I mentioned here) NZD/USD is near the topline of a ending diagonal which also suggests a turn south is coming up.

AUD/NZD is at the bottom of a corrective channel and roughly retraced the length of wave W.

So I expect Kiwi weakness will kick in soon.

NZD/USD - Ending diagonal, but a bigger one

Remember this chart of  NZD/USD. The pair initially went down but then rallied in 3 waves to 0.7338. It appears that that smaller ending diagonal turned into a larger ending diagonal. Although I believe that the smaller diagonal satisfied all requirements of an ending diagonal I think that the fifth wave was relatively small and out of proportion. So recent price action demonstrates once again that proportions matter when it comes to Elliott Wave analysis.

Last thursday NZD/USD traded a few pips above 0.7324 and met the minimum requirements for an ending diagonal. However, it would be more convincing if Kiwi reached the upper line of the supposed ending diagonal.

NZD/USD - Expect higher levels before a new deep plunge

The Kiwi got clobbered last week after completing wave 4 at 73.25. so 73.25 should hold.
Minor wave 1 ended at 69.50 so we are now correcting in a wave 2. The sharp Elliot Wave counter has probably already counted 3 waves up but personally I think that this is just wave A (of wave B) considering the small distance in price it covered relative to wave 1. So a flat pattern is a possibility and a deep wave B would confirm this.

So we are now in a B-wave followed by a C-wave to complete minor wave 2. After that Kiwi should plunge again.

In case wave 2 already has finished at 70.26  I will wait for smaller degree wave 1 and wave 2 (of wave 3) to complete and will from there add on to my short position.

NZD/USD - Wave 2 is complete

The larger correction from august 2015 has likely ended at 0.7295. Smaller degree wave 2 seems to be complete at 0. 7240 which suggests a big decline will follow from here. A surge above 0.7295 would invalidate this scenario.