WTI looks like it's in a flat

The rally from 26.03 looks like a leading diagonal. Crude went down from 51.64 in 3 waves (wave A) followed by a 3-wave rally back slightly beyond the start of wave A in a B-wave.

This suggests a flat in progress, so I believe 51.91 is the top of wave B and from here 5 waves down can be expected in a wave C. On the faster charts the first 5 minor waves seem to be almost complete (larger wave 1).

About that WTI short

I got a lot of feedback on WTI - Set up to move lower before new highs and questions about what is going to happen next with oil. I hate to disappoint you but the truth is I don't know ! :)

There are multiple options from here, the most likely scenario's are imo that it could be a triangle in progress but then 39.17 should hold. Or it's indeed a WXY like I pointed out in my previous post and in that case you would expect that it will trade below 39.17.

This trade is well in de money so I moved my stop to breakeven (above 47.72)  which is by the way what I always do by taking half of my position out and let the remainder run "risk free".

Bottomline: Personally I wouldn't chase this trade because it looks like we're in de middle of a correction. On wednesday there is a FOMC event which will probably lead to wild swings and you don't want to be stuck in de middle of it with a poor entry. Just my 2 cents.

WTI - Set up to move lower before new highs

The move higher from 43.02 seems to have unfolded in 3 waves so another leg down is likely before WTI will make more gains. Above 47.72 would invalidate this count.