AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP Update

AUD/NZD made a move up, appeared initially to break the trendline, but came down again. So I had to change my count and I figure that we will get a last leg down. Still believe I'm right on the larger picture as long as 1.0237 holds and this move down is clearly corrective.

EUR/GBP went up 300 pips which is a lot during these dull trading days, but it just marginally broke that 0.8571 high, and didn't reach the 1.618 extension of wave 1. So there is a good chance this was corrective, but it can also be a leading diagonal in progress or a wave 1 and 2 followed by wave 1 and 2 of larger wave 3 (alt in red). Many options, I wouldn't trade this if I wasn't already in and up on this one.

EUR/GBP - Looks ready for wave 5 while above 83.04

EUR/GBP is at the 0.382 fib of wave 3 which is roughly a probable target for wave 4 to end (matches my count as well). I think it will resume the trend from here and make new highs in a wave 5. Minor wave 1 is already done (240 min chart). Parity here we come ! 😊

Daily chart:

240min chart:

EUR/GBP Update

EUR/GBP looks like it is in the process of making an expanded flat which is corrective so I bailed out of this trade. If this is indeed an expanded flat it will drop back to 0.8775 and probably slightly beyond this level and then rally back up and extend.

I hope I'm right on this one otherwise I probably gave up on a great short. 

EUR/GBP - Has some falling to do

EUR/GBP's fifth wave (of the rally from 69.30) seems to be complete so now it would be nice to see something convincing on the 15min. I wouldn't rule out a marginal new high but I reckon a big drop is around the corner.

For now we got only 3 waves on the 15min so I'm not totally convinced yet, but you could count this as a wave 1 and wave 2, followed by minor wave 1 and minor wave 2 of wave 3. Well, a chart tells a thousand words.

240min:

15min:

EUR/GBP - Long term (bullish) view

From the years 2000 to 2008 the Euro made solid gains against the Pound but the complete rally from 0.56 to 0.98 unfolded as a three-wave structure and was therefore corrective 

After 2008 the Euro got clobbered big time and faced huge losses against the Pound and fell all the way back to 0.6930. Crucially this decline in EUR/GBP took place in 3 waves (double zigzag) too and hence was corrective as well.

In July 2008 the pair rallied impulsively to 0.8626 and broke convincingly out of a 8 year old corrective channel. Currently the correction of the 0.69-0.86 impuls is already in progress.

From here on out I believe the correction of the 0.69 - 0.86 rally will need more time to complete and will subsequently be followed by new rally which should go far beyond 0.86 in a C wave.

EUR/GBP - Larger correction looming

EUR/GBP completed 5 waves up at 0.8630 so I expect 3 waves down from that level. The ideal target for this projected down move is 0.7575.

EUR/GBP- Correcting before move higher

The third wave of wave 5 has ended at 0.8375 and is now correcting ideally towards 0.8075. Then a final move higher will complete a 5-wave structure which started at 0.6930. This pair broke out a double zigzag pattern that started in 2008 so I'm long term bullish on this pair. However, after 5 waves are complete it will correct for months before a strong up move will take place.