Since January Kiwi appears to be in an ending diagonal which is not uncommon for a C wave. This pattern looks like a wedge and consists of 5 waves and it looks like the fifth wave could be complete at 0.7485.
From 0.7485 a 5-wave decline followed to 0.7234 after which 3 waves up were seen which suggests minor wave 1 is complete and wave 2 could be complete. But this 3-wave rally is very small and last friday's decline could be a X wave which would point to a double zigzag and 3 more waves up before a 3th wave down starts. An alternative scenario could be that it breaks down straight away because we have already 3 waves up even though they are relatively small.
Above 0.7485 invalidates all of this.
Sunday, September 18, 2016
Monday, August 29, 2016
NZD/USD - First impuls down complete
Kiwi made a strong move down and broke the smaller degree bullish structure. It will be hard to break 0.7380 since the move down to 0.7210 was impulsive. So I see this upwards movement on the fast charts as a wave 2 and believe more declines are around the corner when this correction has fizzled out.
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Kiwi about to turn soon
Like EUR/NZD is set to make more gains (as I mentioned here) NZD/USD is near the topline of a ending diagonal which also suggests a turn south is coming up.
AUD/NZD is at the bottom of a corrective channel and roughly retraced the length of wave W.
So I expect Kiwi weakness will kick in soon.
AUD/NZD is at the bottom of a corrective channel and roughly retraced the length of wave W.
So I expect Kiwi weakness will kick in soon.
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
NZD/USD - Expect higher levels before a new deep plunge
The Kiwi got clobbered last week after completing wave 4 at 73.25. so 73.25 should hold.
Minor wave 1 ended at 69.50 so we are now correcting in a wave 2. The sharp Elliot Wave counter has probably already counted 3 waves up but personally I think that this is just wave A (of wave B) considering the small distance in price it covered relative to wave 1. So a flat pattern is a possibility and a deep wave B would confirm this.
So we are now in a B-wave followed by a C-wave to complete minor wave 2. After that Kiwi should plunge again.
In case wave 2 already has finished at 70.26 I will wait for smaller degree wave 1 and wave 2 (of wave 3) to complete and will from there add on to my short position.
Minor wave 1 ended at 69.50 so we are now correcting in a wave 2. The sharp Elliot Wave counter has probably already counted 3 waves up but personally I think that this is just wave A (of wave B) considering the small distance in price it covered relative to wave 1. So a flat pattern is a possibility and a deep wave B would confirm this.
So we are now in a B-wave followed by a C-wave to complete minor wave 2. After that Kiwi should plunge again.
In case wave 2 already has finished at 70.26 I will wait for smaller degree wave 1 and wave 2 (of wave 3) to complete and will from there add on to my short position.
Wednesday, July 13, 2016
EUR/NZD - Kiwi weakness about to kick in
NZD/USD and EUR/NZD are now at or near potential turning points and AUD/NZD might have already turned yet.
EUR/NZD - This pair is in a minor wave 4 so one more marginal move down to complete C-wave of a larger degree B-wave.
AUD/NZD - Above 1.0550 would confirm that wave C has ended at 1.0310.
EUR/NZD - This pair is in a minor wave 4 so one more marginal move down to complete C-wave of a larger degree B-wave.
AUD/NZD - Above 1.0550 would confirm that wave C has ended at 1.0310.
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