AUDNZD - Got "X-ed" again

The "bully" AUD/NZD made some progress but it surely wasn't what I hoped for. I still believe the larger pattern suggests this pair will go up, the question is "when". 

As it turns out that latest move up is most likely another X-wave. So I assume we are now going down in a Z-wave but this pair shouldn't trade under 1.0237 (invalidation).

Also note that EUR/NZD seems to be in the late stages of an ending diagonal. I would make sense that both pairs will turn roughly at the same time.

AUD/NZD daily chart:

AUD/NZD: 60min chart:

EUR/NZD daily chart:

Dollar Index Update

The Dollar index (DXY) seems to have completed wave 4 in an "expanded flat". So I assume it's now in the process of developing a minor wave 1 (of larger wave 5). 

An alternative scenario would be that it is now in the process of making an X-wave and wave 4 turns out to become a "double three". Either way, this picture suggests a decent rally is coming and ultimately we will see new highs.

USD/CAD Ready For a Last Leg Up

The way I see it we're in the last part of a triple three on this pair. It looks that wave B was complete last Friday (see 5min chart, impulsive move up). So this should be the last leg up before it collapses.

This scenario corresponds nicely with the Dollar index which has to make one move up as well. It seems a great trade to me if it plays out this way.

Dollar Index and Gold Update

DXY and Gold now appear to be in wave 4 and I reckon that 1200 is an area to watch for Gold to turn and make its last leg down. As I mentioned earlier, personally I'm not going to trade this because I'm trying to catch that supposed Dollar top. Exciting times are coming.

AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP Update

AUD/NZD made a move up, appeared initially to break the trendline, but came down again. So I had to change my count and I figure that we will get a last leg down. Still believe I'm right on the larger picture as long as 1.0237 holds and this move down is clearly corrective.

EUR/GBP went up 300 pips which is a lot during these dull trading days, but it just marginally broke that 0.8571 high, and didn't reach the 1.618 extension of wave 1. So there is a good chance this was corrective, but it can also be a leading diagonal in progress or a wave 1 and 2 followed by wave 1 and 2 of larger wave 3 (alt in red). Many options, I wouldn't trade this if I wasn't already in and up on this one.

Euro Index vs Dollar Index (DXY)

The Dollar Index (DXY) is in wave 5 of larger wave C so we can assume that the dollar rally which started in 2008 is in its late stages and a dollar sell off is around the corner( in a few months).

At the same time the Euro Index is ready for a last plunge which corresponds well with the EUR/USD picture I got in mind.

So regardless what the media tells you about rising rates in the US and years of USD gains, stick to Elliott and watch this rally fizzle out soon. I'm going to update these charts every 2 weeks or so, I don't know what you people are going to do but I'm going to catch a major top.😎

BTW If it plays out this way, the Euro will gain but there are probably better options like commodities or commodity currencies (AUD/NZD/CAD).

AUDNZD - Ready for the launch ?

I'm touting about this trade for a long time now in anticipation of a big third wave up which I don't want to miss. I have already multiple long positions but this seems another nice opportunity to add on to the trade.

The move down from 1.0725 is clearly corrective and this wave 2 might already be over. But this correction can still go lower as long as 1.0237 holds. 

On the 15min we need a new high to complete a 5-wave structure, in that case this should be minor wave 1 (which is part of a larger third wave) and we'll take off soon.

Daily chart:

240min chart:

15min chart:

EUR/GBP - Looks ready for wave 5 while above 83.04

EUR/GBP is at the 0.382 fib of wave 3 which is roughly a probable target for wave 4 to end (matches my count as well). I think it will resume the trend from here and make new highs in a wave 5. Minor wave 1 is already done (240 min chart). Parity here we come ! 😊

Daily chart:

240min chart:

USD/TRY Should Resume Move Higher Soon

As mentioned here the USD/TRY broke in July out of a wave 4 triangle in and then retraced to 2.9133 where wave 3 (of larger wave 3) took off.

The pair is now in a minor wave 4 and has some more corrective movement to do before the rally resumes. Should not trade below 2.9932.

GBP/USD Long Term View

Cable has some more falling to do. I'm gunning for 0.96, the length of "W" (weekly chart) but there are more possibilities for this pair. The good news is that they all point south, the only question is how much will it go up before it plunges again. I belief we will see a move higher before we're going down again but I'm staying in because this is in my view a nice long-term trade.

Daily chart:

Weekly chart:

EUR/CAD - To X or not to X

EUR/CAD made a lovely move down and broke the diagonal. We're going vertical at the moment which suggest we are in a wave 3. Pairs like USD/CAD and NZD/CAD are also doing a good job looking bearish.

But the pair could be near the first bump on the road, that trendline on the daily chart could result in a 3-wave rally back up. In that case we are still in wave 2 and this move down is a X-wave.

However, I think - regarding the time consumed in corrective movement- the most likely option is that wave 2 is complete, break the trendline and this is already wave 3. 

Daily:

240min:

NZD/USD - Follow up

Kiwi broke the diagonal as I hoped for here and the fast move down suggests a wave 3 is unfolding. I expect a larger decline for this pair but I could see AUD/NZD struggling from here and develop a wave 2. This might slow down Kiwi's decline but so far so good.

NZD/USD:

AUD/NZD:

EUR/AUD - Follow up

EUR/AUD followed the Elliott path and as mentioned here a drop followed after a small rally. So I expect more from this pair but I got this one already at break-even. 

At this point 1.4779 would invalidate the count.

EUR/USD - Dull pair might first move up before completing D-wave

After Friday's strong rally the triangle (on the 60m/240m chart) doesn't look that good anymore. Since it traded slightly below 1.1122, broke the triangle and subsequently rallied hard makes it imo more likely that we will see more upside first before the next decline starts.

Personally I think the best option is probably not to trade this bore at all for now, we're right in the middle of a larger correction. 

EUR/GBP Update

EUR/GBP looks like it is in the process of making an expanded flat which is corrective so I bailed out of this trade. If this is indeed an expanded flat it will drop back to 0.8775 and probably slightly beyond this level and then rally back up and extend.

I hope I'm right on this one otherwise I probably gave up on a great short. 

EUR/GBP - Has some falling to do

EUR/GBP's fifth wave (of the rally from 69.30) seems to be complete so now it would be nice to see something convincing on the 15min. I wouldn't rule out a marginal new high but I reckon a big drop is around the corner.

For now we got only 3 waves on the 15min so I'm not totally convinced yet, but you could count this as a wave 1 and wave 2, followed by minor wave 1 and minor wave 2 of wave 3. Well, a chart tells a thousand words.

240min:

15min:

EUR/CHF - Follow up

I think it's interesting to take a look at a trade that didn't follow the (in my view) most likely scenario and what to watch for to limit any losses.

In my last post about this pair here I stated that the most likely scenario is that a wave 3 would follow, but unfortunately it didn't play out this way. EUR/CHF dropped 120 pips and then rallied back up.

Personally I gave a lot of pips back but that doesn't mean you have to lose money when this happens (providing you have a proper entry).

There are 2 big clue's that the decline wasn't a wave 3.

1. The assumed wave 3 didn't hit the 1.618 extension of wave 1.

2. After a 5-wave decline it rallied quickly back in wave 1 territory when price traded above 1,0887 (overlap !). So the decline from 1.10 is likely a X-wave.

So you know exactly where your count is wrong which is in my view the number one gift of the Elliott Wave Principle.

EUR/AUD - Follow up

As mentioned here another drop could be expected. The decline from 1.4781 unfolded in 5 waves so the most likely scenario is that this is wave 1 of larger wave 3. We've already seen a rally followed by a  3-wave decline so I reckon a 3-wave rally (wave Y of larger wave 2) is in the cards now. 

When you count this as a flat we should see 5 waves up in a C-wave, either way it should sail back towards 1.4743 for me to be interested to add on to the trade.

Above 1.4781 would invalide this count.

AUD/NZD - Appears to have turned for real

For months now I've been talking about this trade which has in my always humble:) opinion excellent potential. Yes I was a bit early but this is a long term trade so "early" is relative within this context. At this point it seems likely larger degree wave 2 completed at 1.0237 and that we are now in the process of developing a smaller degree wave 1.

I have already a relatively large position in this trade but I usually ad on to trades but not at this level. I stay away from giving trading advice but personally I would wait for this smaller degree wave 1 to be complete (probably around 1.0760, start of previous wave 4) and then try to catch the end of the C-wave of wave 2 which is basically my edge within the Elliott Wave framework.

Daily chart:

240min chart:

EUR/AUD - Might recover a bit, but then ...?

EUR/AUD made an nice move down last week and bounced from 1.4632 but it looks more like a dead cat bounce for now. I believe there is more downside to come but I would like to see a larger correction higher before the next decline takes place.

Wave 1 of larger wave C seems to be complete at 1.4632 and personally I'm looking to short this pair, not at current levels but higher, preferably around 1.4916 while 1.5069 holds.

BTW: The count in the weekly chart is the least bearish count, a bearisher count could be that larger degree wave B is already complete since we already have seen 3 waves up which would mean the Euro will fall from a cliff straight away.


Weekly:

240min: