USD/JPY - 99.98 make or break level

Changed my count slightly compared with my previous count.

Frankly I could see 99.98 go, but from a risk/reward perspective this could be a massive opportunity now we are within a 100 pip range of this crucial level. If 99.98 breaks I expect new lows, if it holds it could travel way beyond 125.85 assuming wave 2 was complete at 98.78.

Long term view:
http://elliottwavestructures.blogspot.be/2016/07/usdjpy-long-term-picture-expanded-flat.html

USD/JPY - Could turn up big time after a push lower

As long this pair stays above 99.98 I believe that wave 2 of a larger degree wave 3 has started and that 98.78 was a major low and the end of wave 2 (125.85 to 98.78).

I'm not yet convinced that a low is in place though and would like to see it bottoming out or I will wait for an impulsive move up before taking the trade. However, risk/reward looks great and a nice long term trade so stay tuned.

Big picture:
http://elliottwavestructures.blogspot.be/2016/07/usdjpy-long-term-picture-expanded-flat.html

USD/JPY - Long term picture, expanded flat in progress

A long term decline ended in the year 1995 at 81 after which a rally followed and 147 was hit in 1998. Then, crucially, a new plunge unfolded in 3 waves to 75 in 2011.

Then USD/JPY rallied to 125 last year and subsequently made a move down to 98.  Many pundits tell us that the JPY is doomed, so what to expect from here from a long term perspective ?

My preferred scenario is - because the move down to 75 crucially unfolded in 3 waves - that we're in a large wave 4 (see historical chart) which will unfold as an expanded flat. An expanded flat typically completes just beyond the extreme of wave A (147.67) so 150 looks like a proper target to me. After wave 4 is complete the Yen will make huge gains in a fifth wave.

(An alternative scenario is that this large wave 4 unfolded as a running flat. In that case wave 4 completed at 125 and a top is in place which seems unlikely to me but can't rule it out)

USD/JPY - Was 98 the start of "big" wave 3 ?

This pair moved from 98 to 1.0750 in 3 waves so we need one more wave higher to have confirmation that 98 is really the low. For this scenario to become reality USD/JPY shouldn't trade below 1.0325 (overlap) before it will make a new high. Ideal target for wave 5 to start is 1.0462 so keep an eye on that level. If 98 is indeed the low (and the end of larger degree wave 2) a substantial upmove will take place which will move far beyond 1.2585 so this would be a nice r/r trade.