Sunday, August 7, 2016

TNX - 10 year yield might help the Dollar

The 10 year Treasury note yield (TNX) rally from July 2012 unfolded in 3 waves, subsequently the plunge from December 2013 unfolded in 3 waves as well and prices dropped slightly below 1.39 (the starting point of the July 2012 rally). That could mean we're dealing with an expanded flat in progress here which suggests TNX will rally back to 3.00 and probably slightly beyond this price level.

It's a long shot at this point in time but if it plays out this way it would certainly help the Dollar in particular USD/JPY as the yield spread between USD treasuries and JGB's would widen.